Morro Bay Writers' Manifesto Calls AI Boom a Speculative Bubble
A group of writers working from Morro Bay, California, has published a manifesto arguing that the current AI boom is a speculative bubble and that generative AI's capabilities have been overstated.
A group of writers working from Morro Bay, California, has published a manifesto titled "After the AI bubble," arguing that the current artificial intelligence boom is a speculative bubble of unprecedented scale. The authors say they oppose the abuse and exploitation of AI rather than the technology itself, and they contend that the capabilities of generative AI and large language models have been significantly overstated.
The manifesto draws direct comparisons to earlier financial episodes, including the crashes of the 1920s and 1930s and more recent speculative waves such as the dot-com boom, cryptocurrency, NFTs and the metaverse. The authors point to circular financing among AI companies as a particular warning sign, in which firms invest in one another and in their own customers, creating a web of money that can look like demand without necessarily reflecting it.
To support their concerns about profitability, the authors cite a draft S-1 registration filing by Anthropic, which acknowledges a history of net losses and uncertain prospects for future profit. They also argue that the datacenters being built for AI are highly specific to AI workloads, unlike the durable dark fiber laid during the dot-com era, which could still be put to other uses. If that is correct, the infrastructure may lose value quickly if the demand behind it fades.
The authors characterize bubbles as regressive by nature. In their account, early insiders profit while late buyers and the broader public absorb the losses when prices collapse. For that reason, they say a burst sooner rather than later is preferable to a situation in which the government props up the bubble and inflation is sustained by state support. They also argue that the rest of the economy is being stifled while investment continues to flow toward AI.
The manifesto pushes back against what it describes as fatalism, particularly the claim that there is no alternative to the current direction of computing. To make the case that the dominant path can be challenged, the authors point to historical examples in which Linux, minicomputers and microcomputers defied entrenched platforms. They also criticize journalism that repeats executive claims uncritically, a pattern they describe as "CEO said" reporting.
The authors object to the habit of anthropomorphizing large language models by giving them names and pronouns, and they argue that LLMs weaken durable, interoperable ways of organizing information. They express concern about data enclosure and an information economy driven by advertising. The manifesto invites feedback and signatures and is explicitly open to revision, the authors said.
Source: uxdesign.cc
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