Citi Says New Red Dead Game Could Arrive by 2027 or 2028, but Rockstar's Track Record Suggests Otherwise
Citi analysts suggest a new Red Dead game could launch by 2027 or 2028 if GTA 6 development costs were lower than reported, but Rockstar's history of long gaps between major releases makes that timeline highly unlikely.
A new Red Dead game could arrive as soon as 2027 or 2028, according to a note from Citi, the investment bank and financial services company. The bank's analysts suggested that if Rockstar Games is being truthful about GTA 6 not costing $1.5 billion to develop, the studio might be able to release its next Red Dead title sooner than most observers expect. Citi said such a timeline «may not be unreasonable,» according to Yahoo Finance.
But the prediction runs headlong into Rockstar's well-documented development patterns. The studio has historically taken years between major releases, and even longer gaps between entries in the same franchise. Red Dead Redemption launched in 2010, followed by GTA 5 in 2013, then Red Dead Redemption II in 2018, and now GTA 6 is set for 2026. That cadence alone makes a 2027 or 2028 Red Dead release extraordinarily ambitious.
Rockstar's current approach to game development further complicates the picture. The company once tried to develop GTA 6 and Red Dead Redemption II concurrently. Had it succeeded, Rockstar claimed it would have been able to release GTA 6 years earlier. But studio head Rob Nelson deemed the dual-project strategy too ambitious and reassigned staff from GTA 6 to Red Dead Redemption II to help finish that game. Today, Rockstar's network of teams works on one project together before moving on to the next, rather than developing multiple games simultaneously across offices.
Even after GTA 6 launches, Rockstar will likely devote extensive resources to post-launch support. The company has not announced any online plans for GTA 6, but it is widely expected to include some form of extensive online experience supported for years to come, similar to GTA Online. That commitment would further delay any work on a new Red Dead title.
Still, a new Red Dead game would seem like a safe bet eventually. Red Dead Redemption II has sold a breathtaking 87 million copies, making it one of the best-selling games of all time. Rockstar and its parent company Take-Two Interactive have also indicated that new structures are in place to help make games faster.
Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick told The Game Business that people should not «confuse long development cycles with a lackadaisical approach to development cycles.» Some games are «so complex and so challenging to build» that they simply take a long time to make. However, Zelnick said «recent development in technology» may help Take-Two's studios «compress some development timelines without compromising quality.» Zelnick may be referring to Take-Two's embrace of AI, though it is unclear.
Rockstar's Phil Hooker has also said the company's hiring spree and updates to its technology stack should help Rockstar make games faster in the future. But those comments may be aimed more at analysts and investors than at setting firm public timelines.
For now, the Citi note remains speculation. Only time will tell whether Rockstar releases another game eight years after GTA 6, or whether the studio manages to shorten its famously long development cycles. Until then, the bank's forecast is just talk.
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