Senate race spending tops $3.4 billion as Democrats expand map into Texas and Iowa
Democratic Senate candidates are competing in Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Ohio as President Trump's approval ratings slip, pushing total midterm spending past $3.4 billion and putting Republican control of the chamber in doubt.
Control of the U.S. Senate is now genuinely contested with less than two months until Election Day, as Democrats pour money into states that once seemed out of reach and Republicans acknowledge a difficult political environment. Total advertising spending on Senate races is expected to exceed $3.4 billion, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, a significant jump from the $2.8 billion projected last fall. The expanded battlefield includes Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Ohio, where Democratic candidates and allied groups are now competing seriously for seats long considered safely Republican.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune told South Dakota's KELOLAND News last week that he does "worry" about losing the chamber. "I'm a realist," Thune said. "I don't ever try and sugarcoat things. I think it's a competitive environment right now." Republicans entered the cycle with a firm grip on the Senate, but President Donald Trump's slipping approval ratings and voter dissatisfaction with the economy have reshaped the landscape. Trump's job approval on handling the economy stood at 32% in an AP-NORC poll in July, down from 40% in March 2025, shortly after he took office. His trade policies and the war in Iran, with correspondingly inflated fuel costs, have added to economic uncertainty for voters.
Democrats need to net four seats to win the majority. Their original path centered on holding Michigan, Georgia and New Hampshire while winning back Republican-held seats in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio. That plan has shifted. "We now have multiple paths for the majority," Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said last month. "We found new states — Iowa, Texas — which people a year ago weren't even paying attention to."
Some states where Democrats were most optimistic at the start of the cycle have grown murkier. In Michigan, where an open seat is on the ballot, no Republican has won a Senate race since 1994. But Democrats are struggling to unite behind nominee Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive who narrowly defeated moderate U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens in the August primary after a bruising contest that saw nearly $70 million spent against him. Republicans believe Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate race by fewer than 20,000 votes, has an improved shot. The Senate Leadership Fund, Senate Republicans' spending PAC, added $6 million to its Michigan advertising investment after El-Sayed won, bringing its total to $51 million.
In Maine, Democrats saw a prime opportunity to defeat five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins, but their path has narrowed. Progressive Graham Platner easily won the nomination in June but left the race the next month over a sexual assault allegation he denies. Democratic delegates chose Troy Jackson, a lesser-known former state legislative leader, to replace him in late July. Jackson has been forced to play catch-up. Collins and aligned super PACs have spent almost $80 million so far, while Jackson and Democratic-aligned groups have spent and reserved close to $45 million since he became the nominee.
As one path narrowed, others widened. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who ousted four-term incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary despite Senate Republican leadership backing Cornyn. Paxton has been shadowed for decades by legal and ethical questions, including indictments for securities fraud, though he was not convicted. Talarico and allied groups have spent nearly $30 million on advertising since the May runoff, compared with less than $3 million by pro-Paxton groups. The political fund associated with Trump spent $10 million on TV and digital ads last week to help Paxton, its first major general election investment of the midterms.
Republicans are also spending more to defend seats in Iowa and Alaska while feeling more optimistic about New Hampshire. Ohio Sen. Jon Husted is looking to fend off a comeback from former Sen. Sherrod Brown in another key matchup. Republican Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio acknowledged the economic concerns driving the environment. "Things still cost too much. And so we've got to work on that issue," Jordan told The Associated Press. "We understand that and we know that's real." The implications of the fight are huge for Trump's agenda, as the Senate confirms or blocks presidential nominees for administration jobs and open court seats for the remainder of his term.
