Avocado Importers Warn Tariff Quotas Would Raise Prices, Threaten 37,000 US Jobs
As Washington revisits USMCA and weighs new limits on Mexican avocado imports, an industry analysis warns that seasonal tariff-rate quotas would strain supply, raise grocery prices, and put thousands of American jobs at risk.
New calls in Congress to restrict Mexican avocado imports are colliding with a hard economic reality: American demand for the fruit has outgrown what domestic growers can supply, and importers warn that proposed seasonal tariff-rate quotas would raise prices for families without solving the cost problems California farmers actually face.
The debate has intensified as the United States prepares to revisit the USMCA trade agreement. Supporters of new limits argue that tariff-rate quotas would shield California growers from foreign competition. But critics, including a former USDA official who now represents Mexican avocado importers, contend that such quotas would create an economic headache by constraining supply during the March-to-September window, when imports account for roughly half of all avocados sold in the United States.
The numbers behind that warning are striking. According to USDA data, U.S. avocado consumption has grown more than sevenfold since the late 1990s, climbing from about 424 million pounds in 1998/99 to 3.25 billion pounds in 2024/25. Per capita consumption reached 9.5 pounds annually in 2024/25, up from just 1.52 pounds in 1998/99. Avocados are no longer a specialty item; they have become a routine part of the American diet.
Domestic production has not kept pace. California had roughly 49,300 acres of bearing avocado farmland in 2025, producing an average of 6,940 pounds per acre. That same year, the United States imported nearly 2.9 billion pounds of avocados, with Mexico supplying 83% of those imports. The gap between what California grows and what Americans eat is too large for domestic production alone to fill.
The history of Mexican avocado access unfolded in stages. Alaska gained access in 1993. In 1997, the USDA allowed Mexican Hass avocados into 19 northeastern states for part of the year. Year-round access to all 50 states began on February 1, 2007. California growers fought the earlier expansions in court, and their concerns about high input, land, and water costs remain legitimate.
But importers argue that tariff-rate quotas would not address those underlying costs. Instead, they point to the recent experience with Mexican tomatoes. After Mexican tomatoes lost duty-free status, U.S. tomato prices climbed nearly 40% over the prior year, compared with a 17% increase in overall food prices. Weather and rising production costs also played a role, but the episode illustrates how trade restrictions can compound supply challenges and hit consumers at the grocery store.
The economic stakes extend well beyond the produce aisle. A 2026 analysis by Texas A&M University researchers, funded by the Mexican Hass Avocado Importers Association, estimated that Mexican Hass avocado imports generated $7.1 billion in U.S. economic output and supported more than 37,000 jobs in fiscal year 2025/26. That output has increased more than 320% since fiscal year 2012/13, though annual contributions have fluctuated with import volumes and prices.
California itself benefits from that activity. The same researchers estimated that Mexican Hass avocado imports generated approximately $968 million in economic output and supported more than 5,300 jobs in the state in fiscal year 2025/26, with gains across transportation, distribution, retail, and other services. The findings suggest California participates in the economic activity generated by imports even as its own growers face competitive pressure.
Supporting American farmers is a widely shared goal. The question is whether a seasonal tariff-rate quota achieves it. Importers maintain it would not, arguing that policies to improve water efficiency and manage rising production costs would do more for California growers than import limits that risk straining supply, jeopardizing jobs, and raising prices for American families.
6
